A recent survey conducted by Gallup has revealed a mixed bag of expectations for the United States in 2025. The poll, which sampled up to 100,000 registered participants between December 4-15, found that two-thirds of Americans anticipate a rise in the stock market next year. However, the same proportion of people expect more political conflict within the US and international discord.
Stock Market Optimism
The survey results indicate a significant increase in stock market optimism, with 66% of respondents predicting a rise in the market for 2025. This marks a 30 percentage point increase from the previous year’s outlook taken in December 2022, during a period of high inflation and low confidence in the economy. The growing optimism towards the stock market may have implications for the crypto markets, as a sustained rise often coincides with a Bitcoin rally.
US Political Cooperation
The survey also highlights the decreasing optimism regarding US political cooperation under President Trump’s administration. Only 23% of Americans expect "positive" political cooperation within the US in 2025, down from 32% in 2023. However, this is still an improvement over the previous year’s results.
International Peace
The poll also reveals a bearish outlook on international peace, with only 32% predicting a somewhat peaceful 2025 internationally. This is up from 14% in 2023 but still indicates a concerning trend.
Impact on Crypto Markets
Bitcoin’s price movements have been closely tied to tech stocks and international events. The recent survey highlights the potential risks faced by Bitcoin, particularly if there are more international disputes. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has plummeted during times of conflict, such as when Iran bombed Israel in April 2023 (dropping around 8%) or when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 23-24, 2022 (dropping nearly 11%). However, Bitcoin also rallied in early 2023 when the local US banking system showed signs of fragility.
Economic Difficulty
The survey results indicate that a larger share of respondents see 2025 as more likely to be a "year of economic difficulty" amid a rising federal budget deficit and an increase in China’s power. Despite this, 54% of respondents expect increasing or full employment and 52% predict reasonable price growth.
Party-Based Predictions
The survey also split responses between Republicans, Democrats, and independents. The results generally found that Republicans are more optimistic about the year ahead than Democrats. Gallup noted that it is typical for Americans who identify with the new president’s party to be more optimistic for the year ahead. "Trump’s victory in November has energized Republicans and has undoubtedly contributed to their broadly positive expectations for the year ahead."
Crypto Market Forecasts
The crypto market itself has seen generally optimistic forecasts for 2025, including predictions of a far more crypto-friendly Trump administration and potential strategic Bitcoin reserves. However, Gallup’s survey wrapped up before the Federal Reserve’s market committee bearishly trimmed the number of projected interest rate cuts from five to two in a December 18 meeting, which may create a less favorable macro environment for the stock market and even more so for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Conclusion
The mixed bag of expectations revealed by Gallup’s survey indicates that while there is optimism towards the stock market, it comes with concerns regarding US political cooperation and international peace. The potential implications on the crypto markets are uncertain, as a sustained rise in the stock market can often coincide with a Bitcoin rally but may also
