Jordan’s inflation accelerated in the opening months of 2025, driven by a broad-based rise in consumer prices across multiple key categories while the country’s industrial activity showed resilience. Official statistics indicate that the general consumer price index (CPI) reached the mid-112s level as households faced higher costs in personal goods, tobacco, meat and poultry, as well as a range of everyday foods and cultural goods. Against this backdrop, the industrial sector posted notable gains in January, underscoring a complex domestic price environment where production activity rose even as consumer prices climbed. The recent data also point to seasonal effects surrounding Ramadan that are expected to influence food expenditures in the near term, alongside a mixed picture in month-to-month price changes. This article provides a comprehensive, field-by-field reconstruction of the latest prices, the contributing items, and the broader macro implications for households, businesses, and policymakers.
Inflation in Jordan: a detailed overview of early 2025 movements
The Department of Statistics in Jordan reported a clear acceleration in the inflation rate during the first two months of 2025, with year-on-year growth clocking in at 2.21 percent. This rise came as consumer prices climbed across several major commodity groups, signaling a broad-based shift rather than a pick-up confined to a handful of products. The general CPI, measured at 112.30 points for the January–February period combined, reflects a period of price pressure that touches multiple layers of household expenditure. The magnitude of the increase underscores a shift in the consumer price environment that observers will watch closely, especially given the ongoing global inflation dynamics and domestic demand drivers.
Within this inflationary landscape, specific categories stood out as the primary engines of price pressure. Personal luggage prices surged dramatically, posting a year-on-year increase of 16.69 percent, a figure that captures the heightened costs associated with travel, shipping, and related services, as well as broader price adjustments in durable goods linked to personal-use items. Tobacco and cigarettes followed closely, rising by 12.73 percent on an annual basis, highlighting ongoing pressures in both consumer staples and linked regulatory or supply chain factors. Meat and poultry prices increased by 8.7 percent, reflecting higher costs in protein sources for households, a trend that can ripple through food budgets and dietary choices.
In addition to these standout categories, spices, food additives, and other food products rose by 5.32 percent year-on-year, while culture and entertainment expenditures climbed by 5.07 percent. These movements reveal a broad spectrum of price pressures that extend beyond raw food ingredients to reflect broader consumer spending on experiences and non-essential goods. The inflation reading aligns with a wider narrative of price evolution in the region and globally, but it is important to note that the latest World Bank figures show a different cadence in price changes across months: a 1.2 percent rise in December and a 2.6 percent increase in November, underscoring a pattern of fluctuations that can influence consumer expectations and budgeting as Ramadan approaches.
For February 2025 specifically, Petra, the Jordan News Agency, cited a CPI rise of 2.12 percent, with the index advancing to 112.36 points compared to 110.02 in February 2024. The report enumerated the major contributors to this February uptick as including personal effects at 18.39 percent, tobacco and cigarettes at 12.73 percent, meat and poultry at 8.69 percent, and spices, food additives, and other foods at about 5.34 percent, alongside culture and entertainment at roughly 5.18 percent. These numbers indicate that a confluence of rising prices in personal goods, staples, and lifestyle categories was driving the annual inflation uplift.
The Petra assessment also identified a countervailing effect from falls in several price segments. Specifically, declines were observed in furniture, carpets, and bedding of 3.46 percent, clothing down by 2.5 percent, household appliances down by 2.31 percent, and dried and canned vegetables and legumes down by 2.13 percent. While these declines provided some relief within the overall inflationary mix, they did not suffice to offset the strong gains recorded in the other categories, resulting in a net increase for the period.
To contextualize the January period, Jordan’s general CPI in January rose by 2.29 percent year over year to 112.23 points, with the surge largely attributed to sizeable increases in personal luggage prices. Month-on-month dynamics also warrant attention. The index rose by 0.11 percent in February relative to January, a modest but meaningful uptick that was led by a 2.87 percent jump in personal luggage prices. Following this, fish and seafood rose by 1.02 percent, contributing to the broad-based inflation signal for the month. Meat and poultry increased by 0.97 percent, while communications and beverages and refreshments posted smaller, but still notable, monthly gains of 0.75 percent and 0.55 percent, respectively. This pattern indicates that the recent price movements are not solely a yearly phenomenon; they also feature incremental monthly pressures across multiple sectors, signaling a continuing trajectory of price adjustments in early 2025.
In summary, the inflation narrative for January and February 2025 reflects a multi-faceted mix: a robust year-on-year climb in several consumer categories, a modest month-on-month uptick driven by certain durable goods and consumer services, and offsetting declines in a handful of other items. The resulting inflation rate, measured at around the low- to mid-2 percent range on a year-over-year basis for February, points to a persistent but not runaway price environment. Policymakers, businesses, and households will thus monitor the balance between sustained price pressures in essential goods and services and any possible deceleration in price growth as the year progresses.
Sector-by-sector movements and the drivers behind inflation
A granular look at the inflation components reveals a clear hierarchy of price pressures among different categories. The standout contributors—personal luggage, tobacco and cigarettes, meat and poultry—appear repeatedly as the most influential drivers of the inflation rate across the early 2025 period. The exceptionally strong year-on-year growth in personal luggage prices, at 16.69 percent, implies steep cost adjustments within sectors tied to consumer mobility, travel accessories, luggage manufacturing, and retail pricing strategies. This category’s performance likely reflects a combination of supply chain readjustments after supply shocks, currency effects on imported goods, and seasonal demand patterns associated with travel and tourism cycles.
Tobacco and cigarettes, rising by 12.73 percent year-on-year, indicate persistent cost pressures in a highly regulated and relatively inelastic consumer goods sector. The price movements may be influenced by regulatory changes, excise tax considerations, shifts in supply and demand dynamics, and cost pass-through from producers to retailers. Meat and poultry, up by approximately 8.7 percent, underscore ongoing pressures in protein markets, potentially linked to feed costs, livestock production cycles, and distribution costs. These movements carry direct implications for household food budgets, dietary planning, and nutrition security, particularly for lower- to middle-income households.
Spices, food additives, and other foods rose by about 5.32 percent, signaling that not only staple items but also value-added ingredients and flavoring components contributed to the overall inflation picture. The rise in culture and entertainment costs by roughly 5.07 percent signals that non-essential, discretionary spending on experiences and leisure activities is also contributing to price changes, albeit to a lesser degree than essential goods.
On the other hand, several sectors helped to temper overall inflation. The declines in prices for furniture, carpets and bedding by 3.46 percent indicate a negative contribution from durable household goods, a sector that often experiences price elasticity and inventory adjustments in response to consumer demand and imports. Clothing prices fell by 2.5 percent, reflecting consumer budget reallocation or seasonal discounting effects. Household appliances decreased by 2.31 percent, a sign of competitive pricing, product substitutions, or shifting consumer priorities toward essential goods. Finally, dried and canned vegetables and legumes declined by 2.13 percent, illustrating that some staple pantry items did not follow the same upward trajectory as other food categories.
These sectoral dynamics collectively illustrate a nuanced inflation structure where a handful of high-impact goods dominate the annual price story, while several durable goods and discretionary items exhibit price relief. The net effect is an inflation profile that remains sensitive to the balance of demand, supply, and policy signals, while consumer expectations adapt to a fluctuating price environment. For policymakers, this breakdown highlights the challenge of targeting inflation without stifling growth, as the price pressures are uneven across sectors and consumer groups. For businesses, understanding which categories are likely to drive price changes can inform pricing strategies, procurement planning, and labor costs management to preserve margins while maintaining affordability for consumers.
The February 2025 snapshot: a closer look at main contributors and offsets
In February 2025, the Petra report underscored the same broad pattern of price pressures seen across the early months of the year, while also detailing the precise contributions from each category to the inflation uptick. The 2.12 percent month-over-month increase in the consumer price index to 112.36 points from 110.02 in February 2024 demonstrates that the acceleration in prices is a sustained feature, not a one-off spike. The biggest drivers, according to Petra, included the explosive year-on-year rise in personal effects (a broad category often encompassing personal luggage and related goods) at 18.39 percent, along with tobacco and cigarettes at 12.73 percent, meat and poultry at 8.69 percent, and spices, food additives, and other foods at 5.34 percent. The culture and entertainment category also rose by 5.18 percent, contributing to the broader inflation narrative.
While the broader trend was up, several items helped soften the overall increase, maintaining a more nuanced inflation profile. Price declines were recorded in furniture, carpets and bedding, and clothing, offsetting some of the upward pressure from the more volatile categories. Other offsets came from declines in household appliances and dried or canned vegetables and legumes, though these declines did not overturn the gains seen in the higher-impact segments. Taken together, the February data illustrate how inflation in Jordan is driven by a mix of structural price increases in durable goods and household essentials coupled with seasonal or discretionary price effects in non-essentials and some staple segments.
January 2025 snapshot: year-on-year momentum and month-on-month shifts
January 2025 presented a similar, though distinct, picture of inflation dynamics. The year-on-year rise of 2.29 percent to 112.23 points was largely propelled by the significant increase in personal luggage prices. The January data indicate that the pace of inflation remains elevated and broad-based, with notable contributions from several categories beyond the primary driver of personal luggage. The January figures set the stage for the February movement, as traders, households, and policymakers weighed the implications of price changes across the early-year period.
On a month-on-month basis, February showed a continuing uptick in the consumer price index, driven in part by a 2.87 percent rise in personal luggage prices. This month-on-month movement underscores the persistence of price pressures in categories tied to personal use and discretionary spending. Other items contributing to the monthly rise included fish and seafood, which advanced by 1.02 percent, and meat and poultry, which rose by 0.97 percent. The communications sector and beverages and refreshments also added to the monthly increase, recording gains of 0.75 percent and 0.55 percent, respectively. These monthly dynamics reveal how the inflation narrative in Jordan extends beyond a single category, with multiple sectors contributing to the short-term trend.
The January to February trajectory thus reflects a combination of persistent price pressures in consumer-facing categories and selective price moderation in some durable goods and other items. The overall pattern reinforces the importance of monitoring both annual rate developments and shorter-term monthly shifts, as the balance between supply constraints, consumer demand, and policy responses can evolve quickly in a small open economy.
Industrial production: a parallel story of resilience and sectoral variation
Beyond consumer prices, Jordan’s industrial production index (IPI) provides an essential lens on the economy’s output side. The January data indicate a robust year-on-year increase in the IPI, which rose by 2.76 percent to reach 88 points. This rise reflects a broad-based expansion across the manufacturing, extractive industries, and electricity sectors. In particular, manufacturing output climbed by 2.45 percent, signaling that domestic production benefited from a mix of domestic demand support and export opportunities. Extractive industries surged by 5.95 percent, reflecting a strong performance in sectors linked to natural resources and raw materials processing. Electricity production advanced by 4.52 percent, illustrating gains in energy supply that can support broader production and consumption dynamics.
On the other hand, the monthly comparison reveals a dip in January, with the IPI retreating by 0.53 percent from December levels. This monthly decline was largely driven by a weaker manufacturing output, which dropped by 1.25 percent. The negative month-on-month figure was, however, partially offset by a notable 11.08 percent increase in extractive industries and a 0.5 percent rise in electricity production. The juxtaposition of a positive year-on-year signal with a small monthly decline paints a nuanced picture: while the underlying momentum in the industrial sector remains positive, monthly fluctuations point to the typical seasonal rhythms and adjustments that accompany the start of the year. These dynamics are important to watch, as they can influence inflation through costs, supply chains, and the availability of goods for domestic and export markets.
Industrial context in January: the PPI as a price signal
In tandem with the IPI, Jordan’s industrial producer price index (PPI) offers another angle on upstream price pressures. The PPI rose 0.23 percent year on year in January, reaching 107.13 points. The drivers within this index show a mixed but generally upward trend: manufacturing prices increased by 0.23 percent, while extractive industries saw a more sizable rise of 1.71 percent. These upward movements indicate that the costs faced by producers—especially in the extractive sector—were edging higher, potentially feeding through to consumer prices down the line unless offset by efficiency gains, productivity improvements, or exchange rate movements.
Offsetting some of the price increases at the producer level was a 1.08 percent drop in utility prices, largely tied to electricity. This decline in utility costs helps to cushion some of the upstream price pressures, providing a counterbalance that can support more stable consumer prices in the near term. The month-on-month perspective for the PPI shows a rise of 0.81 percent from December, driven by the aggregate increase in production costs and the mix of sectoral movements across manufacturing, extractive industries, and utilities. The PPI’s trajectory suggests that, even as consumer prices rose, producers faced a cost environment that could influence pricing strategies, supply chain planning, and investment decisions.
The broader context: Ramadan, global links, and policy implications
The inflation story in Jordan is intertwined with seasonal patterns and global price dynamics. Ramadan, a period of rapidly changing consumption patterns and heightened food demand, is expected to exert additional pressure on food costs as households adjust their purchasing behavior and spend more on meals and ingredients. This seasonal factor is relevant for policymakers and market participants alike, as it can intensify price pressures in a relatively short span, even if underlying inflationary forces moderate later in the year.
In the international context, the latest World Bank data point to a recent trend in consumer prices—December’s rise of 1.2 percent and November’s rise of 2.6 percent—adding an external layer to domestic price dynamics. While these figures reflect broader regional and global inflation trends, they also highlight the sensitivity of Jordan’s price environment to external price movements, exchange rate fluctuations, commodity costs, and global demand conditions. For Jordan’s policy makers, understanding this external backdrop is essential for calibrating monetary and fiscal measures, managing inflation expectations, and ensuring that price movements do not erode consumer purchasing power more than necessary.
From a fiscal and macroeconomic perspective, inflation in Jordan has to be weighed against growth and employment considerations. The strong year-on-year increases in specific price categories could affect household real incomes and consumer sentiment, especially for lower- and middle-income households that allocate a larger portion of their budgets to essential goods and services. At the same time, the positive signals from the industrial sector—and its ability to sustain output—provide a counterweight by supporting employment and potential wage growth, which in turn can influence consumer spending and demand dynamics. Policymakers will be watching both the inflation path and the industrial performance closely to determine whether monetary policy, price controls, subsidies, or targeted social programs should be deployed to mitigate any adverse effects on households while preserving incentives for production and investment.
Sectoral implications for households and the economy
The price trends observed in early 2025 have several practical implications for households, businesses, and public policy. The pronounced rise in personal luggage prices, compounded by elevated costs in tobacco, meat, and spices, suggests that households are facing higher costs for everyday staples and discretionary goods. For families with constrained budgets, the inflation in essential items, alongside the ongoing costs of travel and personal use goods, can alter consumption patterns, force reductions in non-essential purchases, and prompt adjustments in saving and spending. Businesses supplying these categories must navigate price sensitivity in the market, balancing margin pressures with consumer demand, and ensuring that supply chains remain robust in the face of price volatility.
The offsetting declines in furniture, clothing, and household appliances provide some shield against rising consumer costs, but these reductions may not fully compensate for the more meaningful price increases in the other categories. For the broader economy, sustained inflation in key consumer groups can influence consumer confidence, retail activity, and the pace of economic growth. On the production side, the resilience demonstrated by the IPI and the PPI suggests that the manufacturing base remains capable of supporting domestic demand while also feeding into exports where applicable. The divergence between consumer price pressures and producer cost dynamics highlights the importance of coherent policy measures that address both sides of the inflation equation: sustaining price stability for households while ensuring producers have the incentives and costs favorable enough to maintain investment and output.
In terms of policy direction, the combination of rising consumer prices and steady-to-strong industrial output could argue for a cautious stance that prioritizes price stability alongside growth. Policymakers might consider targeted measures to cushion vulnerable households from food and essential goods price increases, while continuing to monitor the inflation trajectory and the factors driving food costs around Ramadan and seasonal demand. The mixed signals from the IPI and PPI also underscore the need for structural policies that bolster productivity and efficiency in the industrial sector, which would help limit pass-through of upstream costs into consumer prices over time.
Implications for markets, households, and the path ahead
Looking ahead, the ongoing inflationary pressures in Jordan appear to be embedded within a dynamic framework where a handful of high-impact categories—particularly personal luggage, tobacco, meat, and spices—are the primary accelerants of price growth. The data imply that, absent an unexpected shock, inflation could maintain a steady but elevated path through the early and mid parts of 2025, with Ramadan seasonality potentially intensifying food price pressures in the short term. The interplay between monthly price movements and annual inflation rates will be crucial for forecasting and for setting monetary policy expectations.
From the perspective of the industrial sector, the January performance demonstrates that the economy’s production side is capable of maintaining positive growth even as consumer prices move higher. The strong gains in extractive industries and electricity signal that there are productive inputs that can support both domestic consumption and export opportunities, though the month-on-month declines in manufacturing point to potential cyclical or seasonal factors that require close management. The PPI’s small year-over-year increase, driven by manufacturing and especially extractive industries, suggests that producer costs have not spiraled out of control, though the upward trend in some segments warrants ongoing monitoring.
For households, the practical takeaway is a need to reassess budgets in light of rising prices in core categories. Consumers may look for substitution opportunities, seek out discounts, and adjust pantry staples to cope with higher costs in meat, tobacco, and certain food products, while taking advantage of declines in durable goods where feasible. As for businesses, the inflation environment calls for strategic pricing, supply chain resilience, and careful inventory management to shield margins and ensure continuity in supply chains. In a broader sense, the Jordanian economy seems to be navigating a nuanced period of price dynamics and production performance, where resilience on the production front accompanies a consumer price structure that remains sensitive to several high-impact categories.
Conclusion
The early 2025 inflation and industrial data for Jordan depict a complex but navigable landscape. Inflation rose year over year across multiple major categories, with sharp gains in personal luggage, tobacco, meat and poultry, and various food products, while some durable goods experienced price declines that partially offset the overall increase. The CPI readings for January and February reveal a persistent price pressures story, including a modest month-on-month uptick that aligns with underlying demand dynamics and seasonal factors. At the same time, the industrial sector showed resilience, with the IPI posting a solid year-over-year rise driven by manufacturing, extractive industries, and electricity, even as month-on-month declines in manufacturing tempered the headline. The PPI’s modest year-over-year increase signals ongoing upstream cost pressures in parts of the economy, balanced by a reduction in utility costs and monthly gains.
Taken together, the data points suggest that Jordan’s inflationary path remains multifaceted and responsive to both domestic economic forces and international price movements. Policymakers will need to balance measures aimed at stabilizing prices—particularly for essential goods and Ramadan-related food costs—with strategies to sustain industrial output and investment, ensuring that household purchasing power is protected without dampening growth. The coming months will be critical for assessing whether the inflation pressures begin to ease as supply chains normalize and seasonal demand moderates, or whether new price catalysts emerge in the wake of global commodity shifts and local market dynamics.
